CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z WED 16/03 - 06Z THU 17/03 2005
ISSUED: 16/03 01:03Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across Ireland and western Scotland

SYNOPSIS

Wednesday morning at 06 UTC... a southwesterly flow of mild maritime air expected over extreme western Europe. A jet from the Atlantic ocean curves cyclonically over the British Isles over southern Scandinavia towards the western Ukraine. Several minor shortwave troughs are expected to move eastward over the British Isles during the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

...Ireland, western Scotland...
A couple of showers and thunderstorms may form over the area forced by weak shortwave troughs that are expected to cross the area. They are most likely over Ireland, where some insolation may contribute to destabilsation and upstream of the Scottish highlands where orographic forcing plays an important role. Overall instability will likely not exceed a couple of 100's of J/kg surface-based CAPE. However, rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear (10-15 m/s between 0 and 1 km and around 25 m/s between 0 and 6 km AGL) suggests that any convection may become rather well organized in line segments and may possibly develop a couple of short-lived rotating updrafts. As a result, some strong wind gusts, hail up to 2 or 3 cm in diameter, and an isolated weak tornado cannot be ruled out. But, the chance of these events happening will be low given the weak instability and modest forcing.

#